The long-awaited NBA playoffs are finally underway and there are many intriguing first round matchups, including rematches and battles amongst star-studded teams. Here are my predictions for the first round of the NBA playoffs.
(1) Boston Celtics vs (8) Miami Heat
After their seven-game series last year in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics and the Heat meet yet again. Though Miami outlasted Boston in 2023, this Celtics’ team seems to be a different animal.
Boston improved their team’s depth by adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, which helped them capture the league’s best record of 64-18. The Celtics demonstrated their dominance this season finishing 1st in offensive rating and 2nd in defensive rating.
In all three of their previous matchups this season, Boston defeated Miami.
In addition, the Miami Heat will most likely be without their star player Jimmy Butler, who sprained his MCL in the Play-In game against the Sixers.
Therefore, since Boston has had Miami’s number all season and Jimmy Butler will probably miss the entirety of the series, I have the Celtics avenging their loss from last year’s playoffs.
Prediction: Boston over Miami in 5
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8) New Orleans Pelicans
No team this season took a larger leap than the OKC Thunder. After finishing 10th in the Western Conference last year, the Thunder jumped all the way to 1st this season in a conference that has five 50-win teams.
OKC guard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has been nearly unstoppable all season averaging 30.1 points while shooting 53% from the field and 35% from the three-point line. Defending Gilgeous-Alexander, along with the rest of the Thunder core, will be a tough task for the New Orleans Pelicans defense that finished 8th in points allowed.
Importantly, the Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson for much of the series after suffering an injury against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Play-In tournament. Williamson led the Pelicans in scoring this season, averaging 22.9 points.
I expect this to be a tough physical series, especially for a 1st round matchup, but the absence of Zion Williamson greatly hurts New Orleans chances of advancing.
Prediction: Thunder over Pelicans in 5
(2) New York Knicks vs (7) Philadelphia 76ers
Injuries forced these teams to play in the 1st round, but in terms of talent, this is a 2nd round matchup. Both the Knicks and the Sixers are among the tougher teams to beat in the East, and this could easily be the best 1st round series in this year’s playoffs.
Since the All-Star break, the Knicks have only lost 10 games and they ended the season winning their last 5 games. Jalen Brunson has also caught fire to end the season, scoring at least 40 points in three of the last five games.
Like the Knicks, Philadelphia has been on a roll as of late. Since Joel Embiid returned to action April 2nd, the Sixers have yet to be defeated.
Both teams are entering this series with momentum, but I think the Knicks are more prepared for the playoffs. Though undefeated since coming back from injury, it’s visible that Embiid is not at 100 percent, and I’m not yet convinced that Tyrese Maxey is ready to lead a team in the playoffs.
Prediction: Knicks over 76ers in 7
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers
The Nuggets and Lakers meet again in the playoffs after they faced off in last year’s Western Conference Finals. In their previous matchup, the Nuggets defeated the Lakers by beating them in four games and I don’t see things going much differently.
Denver still seems to be the well-oiled machine that won the NBA Finals last year. They did lose Bruce Brown in the offseason, but Reggie Jackson and Christian Braun could make up for the departure.
Additionally, Michael Porter Jr didn’t play well in the playoff last season and Denver still dominated the field. If MPJ can play with some consistency, the Nuggets could be an even tougher team to beat.
The Lakers are a resilient team, but defending the two-man game of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray has been an issue for them. Los Angeles still has two All-Stars in LeBron James and Anthony; however they lost every game against Denver this season.
Prediction: Nuggets over Lakers in 4
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs (6) Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers have been one of the biggest surprises this season. They are the #1 scoring offense and the most efficient team in the league.
Indiana can score with anyone, but their defense has been a problem all season. The Pacers have the 27th scoring defense allowing 120 points per game and their opponents shoot a league’s worst 49.6% from the field.
The Milwaukee Bucks too have struggled defensively, especially since Doc Rivers took over as head coach, but I believe they are more capable of forcing defensive stops than Indiana.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as a game time decision for the first game of the season, but he is expected to play this series. If Milwaukee can get Giannis back in time, the Bucks should be able to get out of this 1st round matchup.
Prediction: Bucks over Pacers in 6
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (6) Phoenix Suns
This is a classic matchup between a dominant defense and a high-powered offense. The Timberwolves finished the season as the #1 defense, while the Suns finished 10th in scoring and offensive rating.
Though Minnesota’s defensive prowess has been displayed all season, defending both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant is a tough ask for anyone. Them combined with the floor spacing that Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen offer make Phoenix’s offense very dynamic.
Rebounding will be an issue for Phoenix as they will be undersized against Minnesota’s frontcourt duo of Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns, but I believe Phoenix’s shot making ability will counteract the Timberwolves cleaning the glass.
This series can easily go either way, but I give the Suns’ a slight edge due to the experience their star players have.
Prediction: Suns over Timberwolves in 7
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic has improved much over the last few seasons. Paolo Banchero, who won Rookie of the Year last season, has already taken a leap to be cornerstone of Orlando.
In addition to Paolo Banchero, the Wagner brothers and Jalen Suggs appear to be the future of the Magic. Though Orlando is filled with potential, I don’t believe they are ready to compete with a team like Cleveland.
The Cavs have been a sleeper team all season, but they may be capable of making a run in this year’s postseason. Donovan Mitchell is a proven playoff performer and I believe he can lead this team past the Magic.
Cleveland’s core of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley could be too much for the young Orlando team. The Cavaliers also have eight players who averaged more than nine points per game this season.
Prediction: Cavs over Magic in 5
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Dallas Mavericks
This will be the 3rd time these two franchises have competed against each other in the past five seasons, with the Clippers winning the last two matchups. The Clippers won the previous two playoff matchups, but this Dallas team has improved since then.
On top of having Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks have added Kyrie Irving to their roster for additional scoring, which they lacked in the previous postseason matchups with the Clippers. Those two have been one of the best NBA backcourts combining for over 59 points and 15 assists per game.
The Clippers are also dealing with injuries yet again in the playoffs. Currently, Kawhi Leonard is listed as a game time decision, and he hasn’t played since March 30th.
The potential absence of Kawhi Leonard will hurt the Clippers, but I don’t expect them to just roll over. Los Angeles still has Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook who are all more than capable of carrying heavy loads for the Clippers.
I expect this to be a close series, but I believe Dallas will have the upper hand against the Clippers.
Prediction: Mavericks over Clippers in 7