Patrick Mahomes has proven time after time that picking against him is a bad decision. He is on a six-game playoff winning streak, where his last loss came against the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2022 AFC Championship game. Outside of that game, Mahomes’ only other two losses came from teams led by arguably the greatest QB ever in Tom Brady. Though his Super Bowl QB matchup in Brock Purdy isn’t at the same caliber of Brady, he may not need to be to lead San Francisco to the Lombardi.

The 49ers steady offense and persistent defense leads me to believe they have the slight edge over Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

San Francisco’s Consistent Offense

Behind Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and others, the 49ers offense has been hitting on all cylinders this year. They finished 2^nd in yards per game and 3^rd in points per game, which has helped them get this far. Though they are challenged against one of the best defenses in the league, as Kansas City only allowed 17.3 points per game, they have a rushing game that has dominated all year.

San Francisco rushed for 140.5 yards per game this year, which was 3^rd in the NFL this year behind the Bears and Ravens. Their lead back, Christian McCaffrey won the rushing crown this year finishing the season with 1,459 yards and was a scoring machine sprinting for 14 touchdowns on the ground. This rushing game has also greatly transitioned to the playoffs totaling for 155 yards versus Detroit and 111 against Green Bay.

Some may argue that Kansas City may stuff the 49ers rushing effort since they only allowed 81 yards on the ground against Baltimore. Though the Chiefs held the best rushing offense to a season low, it is important to note that Baltimore only called six designed runs because they faced an early 14 point deficit. With this, it is hard for me to believe that this Chiefs defense, that has allowed 113.2 rushing yards per game, will dominate two of the league’s best ground offenses in back-to-back games.

The biggest question mark, if not the only one, on the 49er’s offense belongs to who they have under center. Brock Purdy had a great season throwing for 4,280 yards for 31 touchdowns with 11 interceptions, but he has struggled since his abysmal performance against the Ravens on Christmas. Since the Baltimore game, Purdy has thrown for 1,004 yards with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

Brock Purdy has also struggled against the top passing defenses in the league. He threw four interceptions against Baltimore and had a 44.4 completion percentage against Cleveland. This could be a major issue for the 49ers, as the Kansas City defense finished 4^th in passing yards per game, but if they can keep Purdy in situations where he can rely on the stellar playmakers around him, they will be fine.

49ers’ Perseverant Defense

The San Francisco defense hasn’t performed great in recent weeks compared to their regular season performances. They gave up 31 points versus the speedy Detroit Lions and gave up 15 points in the 3^rd quarter against the Packers.

Though they struggled in their last two games, they eventually stuck their foot in the dirt to get stops and create turnovers. In the 2^nd half against Detroit, the San Francisco defense allowed only one score and forced two turnovers. In the 4^th quarter versus Green Bay, they didn’t allow a score and secured a game sealing interception.

The 49ers’ ability to rally together and force stops on defense will be a deciding factor in this year’s Super Bowl. They are facing Patrick Mahomes, but this Chiefs’ offense is the one of years past. In the AFC Championship game, Kansas City was able to win while not scoring a single point in the 2^nd half. They also averaged less points per game this year than they have in the past decade.

In addition to Kansas City inconsistent scoring, they also have issues with turnovers. This year the Chiefs turned the ball over 28 times and had one of the leagues worst turnover differential with -11. Though they have only given the ball away twice this postseason, they have fumbled the ball seven times and are facing a team that forced 28 takeaways.

The Chiefs offense will also be without All-Pro guard, Joe Thuney. Thuney has been out since suffering an injury in the divisional round. In the AFC Championship game, Mahomes was pressured on 34.1% of his drop backs. This loss could be very detrimental, as the San Francisco defensive line features many players who can get after the QB.

Final Prediction

With all these factors, I predict that the San Francisco 49ers will defeat the Kansas City Chiefs 31-21 to win their first Super Bowl since 1995. Kansas City may have the undeniable Patrick Mahomes, but the 49ers may be able to get after him to leave with the Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl MVP – Christian McCaffrey