The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been at the top of the NFC South over the last few years, but with the retirement of Tom Brady and offseason moves, any team can win the division this upcoming 2023 season.

Offseason Changes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Along with the retirement of Brady, the Buccaneers have had several other changes to the 2023 roster. Tampa Bay has currently lost five starters and some key veteran pieces that are not on the upcoming roster including running back Leonard Fournette, tight end Cameron Brate, tackle Donovan Smith, guard Shaq Mason, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, and defensive linemen Akiem Hicks and William Gholston.

Although the Bucs did lose some talent and have a limited amount of cap space, they were able to resign two key starters on the defense in cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David. Dean, 26, had his best season in 2022, recording 54 tackles, two interceptions and eight passes defensed in 15 regular season games according to buccaneers.com. David, 33, has been one of the leagues top linebackers for the last 11 seasons and was a must resign for the Buccaneers defense.

Tampa Bay also added notable names this offseason that includes quarterback Baker Mayfield, running back Chase Edmonds, and safety Ryan Neal. Mayfield has had an up and down NFL career, but will be looking to keep the momentum he had at the end of last season and earn the starting job. Mayfield was only signed to a one-year contract and is currently projected to be the starter over third-year QB Kyle Trask.

2023 Prediction: 6-11

The Bucs may have the best receiving core out of the four teams, but Mayfield will have to prove me that he can be a winning starting quarterback in the NFL as he only has one winning year in his five seasons. Brady may have been on the decline last year, but Mayfield is still a downgrade for the Buccaneers. Tampa also has the 10^th ranked toughest schedule in the league according to nfl.com, which is ranked the toughest among the NFC South. I expect Tampa to continue struggling to score offensively and with the few defensive losses as well, I do not see a path where they will be better than they were last season.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints made there biggest move early this offseason when they signed Derek Carr to a four-year $150 million contract. While Carr had one of his worst seasons in 2022, this looks to be a massive upgrade for the Saints as he will be replacing veteran quarterback Andy Dalton.

New Orleans also made some other moves on the offensive end, signing 2022 rushing touchdown leader Jamal Williams. Williams, 28, is projected to backup Saints star running back Alvin Kamara, but it would be no surprise to see Williams be the leading rusher on the team as Kamara is known for being a receiving back.

The Saints were also able to extend Michael Thomas for at least one more season and replace some off the defensive line losses, signing Khalen Sanders and Nathan Shepard. These replacements come after the Saints lost edge rusher Marcus Davenport, interior defensive linemen David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle, and linebacker Kaden Elliss. New Orleans also picked up some replacements by drafting defensive lineman Bryan Bresee from Clemson with their first-round pick and edge rusher Isaiah Foskey from Notre Dame in the second round of the NFL Draft.

2023 Prediction: 9-8

Unlike the Buccaneers, the Saints look to have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. The toughest test for the Saints on paper is a primetime game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 7. Despite Carr struggling last season, I expect New Orleans to have the biggest quarterback upgrade in the NFC South going from Dalton to Carr. I also expect the Saints defense to be one of the best in the division with defensive minded Coach Dennis Allen and some veteran returning players.

Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers made the decision to trade one of their best offensive weapons in wide receiver DJ Moore and four draft picks to select quarterback Bryce Young with the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. Young, 21, looks to continue his success he had in college with the Crimson Tide and become the Panthers first franchise quarterback since Cam Newton.

The loss of Moore is significant for the Panthers, but they were able to add some talent in free agency around the new young quarterback with the signings of running back Miles Sanders, wide receivers DJ Chark and Adam Thielen, and tight end Hayden Hurst. Young will also have a veteran to learn from after the Panthers signed 35-year-old veteran quarterback Andy Dalton.

It remains to be seen defensively with the Carolina Panthers as they do have some young talent, but could use some help in the secondary. The Panthers did sign 28-year-old safety Vonn Bell in free agency to help the young secondary. Ejiro Evero, former Denver Broncos Defensive Coordinator, also joined the team as the Panthers new defensive coordinator in 2023.

2023 Prediction: 8-9

The biggest question mark for the Panthers is Bryce Young. We will see if Young will be the star he was college or if some of his doubters will be correct about him being too small to play the quarterback position in the NFL. The Panthers also have the weakest receiving core in the NFC South and question marks at the offensive line and in the secondary. I could see the Panthers either being at the top or last in the division, but it all depends on if Young is an immediate superstar talent. I do not think he will have enough help and weapons to make an immediate impact right away.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons were busy this offseason with additions to the team in free agency and the NFL Draft. The biggest additions for the Falcons were on defense in free agency, signing safety Jessie Bates III, defensive linemen David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, and Eddie Goldman, edge rusher Bud Dupree and linebackers Kaden Elliss and Lorenzo Carter.

Offensively, the Falcons signed former Washington Commander quarterback Taylor Heinicke. While currently Heinicke is projected to be the backup quarterback to second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, that could change depending on performance. Ridder earned the starting job in week 15 of the 2022 season and started each of the last four games. It is unclear if he will remain the starter throughout the season due to his inconsistent play and limited number of games we have seen so far.

Atlanta surprised some fans by drafting Texas running back Bijan Robinson with pick 7 of the NFL Draft. The Falcons first need was not a running back after drafting 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier in 2022, but could not pass up on the elite back. The addition of Robinson should only make the quarterback’s job that much easier with his dynamic ability to run and catch the football.

2023 Prediction: 9-8

With the Falcons upgrades on the defensive side of the ball, I could definitely see them winning this division. The quarterback battle between Ridder an Heinicke will be the key factor in Atlanta. I could see either quarterback starting towards the end of the season, but can they lead the Falcons to the playoffs? The addition of Robinson will help and give the quarterback another target to check down to. The Falcons already have big offensive weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London and this could be the breakout year for the young receiving core, depending on quarterback performance.

Similar to last season, I think around eight or nine wins will win the NFC South. The most important game that could decide the division will happen in Week 18 when the Falcons play in New Orleans against the Saints. I expect this division to be very close like it was in 2022 and very well could see this game deciding the winner of the NFC South.